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2025-07-04 04:20:48

Brazil

The Ibovespa surged 1.4% to close at fresh all-time highs of 140,928 on Thursday, propelled by financials and supported by both global and domestic developments. Non-resident investors poured a record R$21.5 billion into B3 by the end of May, providing broad-based support for blue-chip and mid-cap names. Externally, a stronger-than-expected 147,000 US nonfarm payrolls print and the US–Vietnam trade pact renewed risk appetite, driving reallocations into emerging-market equities. Financial heavyweights Banco do Brasil, B3, Itaúsa and Bradesco led gains of 1.4%–2.3%, while Petrobras added 0.8% after unveiling a R$26 billion investment to integrate the Reduc refinery with the Boaventura complex, bolstering confidence in energy-sector cash flows. On the industrial front, Embraer surged 3.9% on news of a 45-aircraft order from SAS, underscoring resilient export demand in aerospace.

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2025-07-04 04:02:29

Canada

The S&P/TSX Composite closed 0.6% higher at a fresh record of 27,034 on Thursday, driven by gains in technology and financials amid optimism over a US–Vietnam trade agreement and robust US employment data. Canadian tech leaders Shopify and Constellation Software jumped 2.1% and 1.1%, respectively, while financial stalwarts Brookfield Asset Management and Bank of Montreal added 2.7% and 1.1%. Those advances more than offset declines in energy and base-metal miners as global metals prices softened. At home, Statistics Canada reported that May merchandise exports rose 1.1% and imports fell 1.6%, narrowing the trade deficit but leaving overall economic momentum muted. Talks to extend punitive US tariffs beyond the July 9th deadline remain unresolved despite Vietnam’s 20% reprieve, sustaining pressure on resource exporters. A stronger-than-expected 147,000 June US nonfarm payrolls print further bolstered confidence in North American growth.

2025-07-04 03:56:51

Soybean futures climbed above $10.50 per bushel on Thursday, posting a 2.2% weekly gain, supported by short covering and pre-holiday positioning ahead of the US Independence Day break. However, gains faded late in the session as favorable US crop weather and abundant global supplies tempered bullish sentiment. Expectations for a strong US harvest and a bumper crop in Brazil continued to cap upside potential. Forecasts for warm temperatures and scattered showers across the Midwest were seen as beneficial for crop development during the crucial flowering and pod-setting stages. Still, unconfirmed speculation that President Trump may announce progress in US-China trade talks during an upcoming speech helped lift sentiment. Additional support came from USDA data confirming private sales of 226,000 metric tons of US soybeans for 2024/25 delivery, along with 195,000 tons for shipment in the current and next marketing years.

2025-07-04 03:44:05

Wheat futures fell to $5.56 per bushel on Thursday after nearing a two-week high in the previous session, as traders took profits following two days of gains and positioned ahead of the US Independence Day holiday. The pullback was also driven by advancing US winter wheat harvests, which added seasonal pressure to prices. Global supply concerns further weighed on sentiment, with sizable crops expected in Europe and the Black Sea region despite recent harsh weather. In Brazil, heavy rains and frosts delayed planting, with only 56.6% of intended wheat acreage sown by June 21, raising concerns about yield and area. US wheat export inspections fell 30% year-over-year to 224,787 tonnes, reflecting limited availability. Severe drought in China’s key wheat-producing regions may cut output by 4–15%, potentially boosting import demand. With US wheat stocks down 20% from last year, even average Northern Hemisphere harvests may not ease global supply concerns.

2025-07-04 03:15:45

Uruguay

Uruguay’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.59% in June 2025, down from 5.05% in May, marking the slowest pace since May 2024. The deceleration was driven by slower price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.18% vs 4.74%), housing and utilities (4.22% vs 4.27%), transport (2.91% vs 4.37%), and recreation and culture. (4.59 vs 6.49). Meanwhile, clothing and footwear (-0.99% vs -1.16%) posted a slowdown in deflation. In contrast, prices rose faster in restaurants and lodging services (6.97% vs 6.68%). The CPI posted a monthly variation of -0.09%, reflecting seasonal declines, especially in fresh produce. Year-to-date inflation reached 2.73%, remaining comfortably within the central bank's target range of 3–6%.

2025-07-04 03:07:54

Rubber futures climbed above 165 US cents per kilogram in July, a one-month high, as heavy monsoon rains in Thailand, the world’s largest producer, threatened tapping frequency and logistics after flood warnings for July 1–6. At the same time, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries forecasts 2025 output rising by just 0.3% to 14.9 million tonnes against demand growth of 1.8% to 15.6 million tonnes, perpetuating a persistent production shortfall. Consumption in China and India—together responsible for nearly half of global rubber use—is projected to increase by 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively, driven by expanding automotive manufacturing and the higher rubber content required for electric-vehicle tires, further depleting inventories and underpinning firmer prices.

2025-07-04 02:57:38

Brent crude oil futures dipped by 0.4% to settle at $68.8 per barrel on Thursday, trimming gains from the previous session as investors weighed the impact of possible renewed US tariffs on global fuel demand. The decline came ahead of an expected OPEC+ decision to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day. Prices had risen Wednesday after Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, heightening geopolitical tensions. While a preliminary US-Vietnam trade deal offered some support, unresolved tariff negotiations with key partners like the EU and Japan added to uncertainty. Pressure also came from weakening Chinese services activity and a surprise 3.85 million barrel build in US crude inventories—the largest in three months—defying expectations for a drawdown. The increase raised fresh concerns about softening demand in the world’s top oil consumer. Meanwhile, strong US job growth in June may delay Fed rate cuts, reinforcing a cautious monetary stance.

2025-07-04 02:54:29

WTI crude oil futures slipped 0.7% to settle at $67 per barrel on Thursday, trimming gains from the previous session as investors weighed the impact of possible renewed US tariffs on global fuel demand. The decline came ahead of an expected OPEC+ decision to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day. Prices had risen Wednesday after Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, heightening geopolitical tensions. While a preliminary US-Vietnam trade deal offered some support, unresolved tariff negotiations with key partners like the EU and Japan added to uncertainty. Pressure also came from weakening Chinese services activity and a surprise 3.85 million barrel build in US crude inventories—the largest in three months—defying expectations for a drawdown. The increase raised fresh concerns about softening demand in the world’s top oil consumer. Meanwhile, strong US job growth in June may delay Fed rate cuts, reinforcing a cautious monetary stance.

2025-07-04 02:20:38

Energy

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Pulls Back As Traders Focus On OPEC+ Production Boost.OPEC+ is expected to raise output by 411,000 bpd at its meeting on Sunday.

2025-07-04 02:08:58

Sunflower oil futures traded near?$1,240?per?tonne in July, their lowest in eight months, under the combined weight of a global supply glut and eroded competitiveness. Ukraine and Russia, which together account for over 60% of exports, saw FOB quotes slip to $1,100–1,110?per?tonne amid robust Black Sea shipments and, in Russia’s case, a more than 30% cut to the July export duty (to?RUB?4,739?per?tonne), unlocking additional volumes. At the same time, India’s palm oil imports surged to an 11-month high in June, enticed by discounts exceeding $200?per?tonne versus sunflower, while Malaysian and Indonesian exports climbed 4–53% year-on-year, swelling inventories. Rising soybean and rapeseed output from Brazil and the EU has further squeezed sunflower’s market share.

2025-07-04 01:20:39

Energy

Baker Hughes oil rig count -7 to 425.The low price today reached a $67.54. It was still above the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low at $66.33.

2025-07-04 01:02:43

United States

The three major averages in the US rose over 0.8% on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closing at record highs as nonfarm payrolls rose by 147K in June, well above the 110K consensus—and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, cementing the view of a resilient economy. Technology leaders rallied, Nvidia gained 1.3% and Synopsys jumped 4.2% on robust AI-driven earnings momentum and the White House’s decision to lift export restrictions on chip-design software to China. Meanwhile, broader market optimism was bolstered by progress on a US-Vietnam trade deal and the near-final House approval of President Trump’s $3.4 trillion tax-and-spending bill. Chip-design peers Cadence Design and Synopsys each added about 5%, and Datadog soared 10% after its imminent inclusion in the S&P 500. Markets will close early today and remain closed Friday for Independence Day.

2025-07-04 00:49:45

Palladium futures dropped toward $1,150 per ounce in early July, easing from an eight-month high of $1,172 seen July 2nd, pressured by a firmer US dollar and higher Treasury yields, which make dollar-priced metals more expensive for foreign buyers, and by fading geopolitical risk following talks of a Gaza ceasefire that removed the “safety-premium” bid. A downgrade in global light-vehicle production forecasts, now set to fall as much as 3% year-on-year in Q3, coupled with rising electric-vehicle penetration substituting palladium in catalytic converters, has trimmed industrial demand. On the supply side, trade data from Russia and South Africa point to milder-than-usual output disruptions this summer, easing inventory pressure. Nevertheless, declines have been limited by ongoing withdrawals from exchange-traded funds, acute scrap shortages amid high recycling costs, and sustained Chinese imports—particularly for non-auto industrial use—which have prevented a steeper correction.

2025-07-04 00:44:39

Corn futures climbed above $4.30 per bushel in July, recovering from six-month lows of $4.095 on June 26th, as mounting evidence of tightening supplies converged with resilient demand. In its June 30th acreage report, the USDA trimmed its estimate for US corn plantings to just below the consensus, and sweltering early summer heat across the Midwest has raised fears of yield losses during the critical pollination window, even though crop-condition ratings remain elevated. On the global front, export demand has surged, particularly from Mexico, where the abrupt suspension of a 25% U.S. tariff has restored American corn’s competitiveness, and Brazil’s slower-than-usual second-crop harvest has limited alternative supplies. At home, strong domestic ethanol blending ahead of peak summer driving season continues to underpin consumption, collectively reinforcing the recent rally in corn prices.

2025-07-04 00:17:09

United Kingdom

The FTSE 100 rose on Thursday, recovering from the previous session’s losses as Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves moved to calm markets by affirming their commitment to fiscal discipline and economic stability. Their remarks helped lift both gilts and the pound, boosting confidence across UK assets. Gains in equities were partially trimmed after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report. UK private sector activity also showed stronger growth than initially estimated in June, supporting sentiment. Lloyds Banking and Barclays were among the best performers, rising 3.2% and 2%, respectively. British American Tobacco and Relx also advanced. However, AstraZeneca dropped over 1.5% amid reports it is in advanced talks with Summit Therapeutics for a lung cancer drug licensing deal potentially worth up to $15 billion. The deal may involve a significant upfront payment and future milestones, though other pharmaceutical firms are reportedly also in discussions with Summit.

2025-07-04 00:11:09

Germany

In Frankfurt, the DAX Index rose 144 points or 0.61 percent on Thursday. Leading the gains are Commerzbank (2.44%), Henkel (2.00%) and Infineon (1.89%). Top losers were BASF (-2.18%), Rheinmetall (-1.91%) and Puma (-1.61%).

2025-07-04 00:07:08

United States

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage backed by Freddie Mac dropped by 10 bps from the previous week to the lowest since April of 6.77% as of July 3rd, easing further from its highest level in nearly four months seen five weeks ago. “The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased for the fifth consecutive week. This is the largest weekly decline since early March. Declining mortgage rates are encouraging and, while overall affordability challenges remain, more sellers are entering the market giving prospective buyers an advantage,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

2025-07-04 00:07:07

Platinum futures dropped to near $1,360 an ounce,, as the metal retraces gains after a spectacular surge late June. The pullback follows a nearly 27% spike—the largest monthly gain in nearly 40 years—when prices hit a decade high above $1,410. Futures are in contango—longer-dated contracts trade above spot—suggesting less immediate supply pressure and a possible "blow-off top" scenario as traders take profits. Easing Middle East tensions dampened safe-haven demand, reducing short-term upward momentum. With gold stabilizing, some investors are locking in platinum profits ahead of possible retracement.

2025-07-04 00:06:50

Nigeria

Nigeria 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to a 16-month low of 17.51%. Over the past 4 weeks, Nigeria 10Y Bond Yield lost 103.70 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 131.00 basis points.

2025-07-04 00:05:42

Italy

The FTSE MIB rose 0.4% on Thursday to close at 39,943, in line with broad gains across European markets. European equities continue to outperform their US peers in 2025, with investors now weighing whether to lock in profits or stay exposed ahead of key events. Focus remains on US-EU trade talks as the July 9 deadline nears. President Trump has warned of 50% tariffs on EU imports if no agreement is reached. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefcovic will meet with US officials in Washington this week to seek a basic deal, leaving complex sector negotiations for later. On the corporate front, STMicroelectronics led the gains with a 2.3% jump after the US lifted export curbs on chip design software to China. Strong performances were also seen from Telecom Italia (+2.1%), Unipol (+1.4%), and Finecobank (+1.2%). On the downside, A2A (-1.1%), Diasorin (-1.0%), Nexi (-0.9%), and Moncler (-0.8%) declined.

2025-07-04 00:01:57

France

The CAC 40 rose 0.2% at close to 7,755 on Thursday, extending the previous session's gains as market sentiment improved amid encouraging signs on global trade relations. In a positive development, the United States lifted restrictions on the export of chip design software to China, allowing US companies to resume sales without the need for a license. Meanwhile, despite new US tariff threats on goods from Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries, markets remained resilient, with investors betting that tensions will stay limited to specific sectors. In Europe, the release of the services PMI indicates a resumption of growth in the euro zone, reinforcing positive sentiment among investors. Among the biggest gainers were STMicro (2.3%), Thales (2.1%) and SocGen (1.9%). On the downside, some stocks bucked the trend, such as LVMH's correction (-0.5%), after consecutive gains, and led by Engie (-2.3%) and Kering (-2.1%).

2025-07-03 23:45:54

Energy

Natural Gas Forecast for Q3 2025.Natural gas typically has a noisy Q3 every year, and I don't see that being any different this year. After all, we have the “shift” into cooler weather at the end of it in the futures markets, and people will be preparing for it.

2025-07-03 23:43:19

European indices close higher.Major European indices are closing the session with gains across the board. The biggest leader was Spain's Ibex with a gain of near 1%.

2025-07-03 23:39:40

Lumber futures eased toward $610 per thousand board feet, retreating from three-month highs of $627 seen June?30th, as abundant supply collided with sagging demand in a cooling North American housing market. US single-family starts were 7% below year-ago levels in May and homebuilder sentiment has faltered under higher mortgage rates. The traditional summer lull arrived early, with builders shifting to just-in-time purchasing and deferring orders amid looming US tariffs on Canadian softwood rather than absorb elevated costs. Nevertheless, production cuts at smaller Eastern mills, log shortages in the Southeast following severe weather, and sustained export demand from Asia have helped cushion the decline by tightening availability of certain dimension and specialty grades.

2025-07-03 23:31:22

Lithium carbonate prices were at CNY 62,000 per tonne in July, halting the aggressive downturn from this year but holding near the lowest since 2021 as markets weighed ample supply against seemingly robust demand. Higher lithium output in China, Indonesia, and the DR Congo continued to pressure selling competition, with estimates from the IEA indicating that lithium supply surged 35% last year. Output is set to continue rising since miners refrain from closing operations to retain market share and business relationships with governments and battery producers. In the meantime, electric vehicle sales in China rose by over 28% annually in May amid the government's incentive to trade-in autos for new energy vehicles. While growing sharply, the data was in line with recent trends that China's EV market has not grown at the pace expected following the boom at the turn of the decade, resulting in subsidies for battery producers that triggered a surge in output and a supply glut.

2025-07-03 23:27:09

Sugar futures bounced back to trade above16.3 cents per pound, their highest level since mid-June, traders focused on weather conditions in top producer Brazil following reports of light frosts in the Center-South. Although there’s no confirmation of major damage to sugarcane yet, the official start of winter has raised concerns over potential productivity losses, according to Hedgepoint Global Markets. The recent slump to 2021 lows had been driven partly by early and abundant monsoon rains, which could lift sugar output in India and Thailand. Meanwhile, Commodities trader Czarnikow projected on June 30th a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. Commerzbank noted that prices are likely to remain under pressure unless Brazilian mills start curbing output. Data from Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Union (Unica) showed that 51.54% of processed sugarcane this harvest was allocated to sugar production, up from 49.68% a year ago.

2025-07-03 23:22:43

Japan

US Deputy Treasury Secretary: The problem with Japan is nontariff barriers.Deputy US Treasury Secretary Faulkender is on the wires saying that the problems with Japan is non-tariff barriers. US Treasury Secretary Bessent will be speaking on CNBC shortly.

2025-07-03 22:59:52

United States

After NFP surprise, US Dollar Back in Play?.

2025-07-03 22:48:20

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, extended its losing streak into a seventh day on Thursday, down about 0.6% to a fresh low since June 3 at 1,434 points. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, eased for the 13th consecutive day, slipping 3.3% to an over one-month low of 1,894 points. Conversely, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose by 1% to 1,507 points; and the supramax index climbed to an over seven-month peak of 1,052 points.

2025-07-03 22:44:36

US natural gas futures fell to $3.44/MMBtu on Thursday after EIA data showed the 11th straight week of above-average storage injections. Energy firms added 55 bcf to storage last week, exceeding expectations of 53 bcf and well above the 35 bcf added a year earlier. Although the injection was slightly below the five-year average of 61 bcf, the trend reflects robust supply. Meanwhile, hotter mid-July forecasts are expected to drive up air-conditioning demand and gas-fired power usage. LNG export activity is also picking up, with average flows to the eight major US LNG plants rising to 15.4 bcfd in early July, up from 14.4 bcfd in June, as plants are gradually returning from spring maintenance. Golden Pass LNG requested US approval to re-export LNG starting October 1, signaling that the facility is close to startup.

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